Bid / No-Bid Decision Calculator Interactive Calculator
The cheapest tender is the one you wisely didn't enter. Score any opportunity on seven weighted criteria and get a disciplined recommendation — with the expected-value math to back it.
By the analysts at Blackridge Research
Inputs
Results
What this means
Adjust the inputs to calculate.
About the Bid / No-Bid Decision Calculator
The cheapest tender is the one you wisely didn't enter.
This calculator scores any opportunity on seven weighted criteria and gives a disciplined recommendation.
This calculator combines seven criteria with fixed weights into a 0-100 score and provides a bid/no-bid recommendation.
Formula
Score = Σ(Criterion × Weight) × 10 - R
- — Relationship with client
- SF
- — Scope fit
- CP
- — Competitive position
- MP
- — Margin potential
- C
- — Capacity to execute
- Risk
- — Payment & country risk
- SV
- — Strategic value
Criteria scores are combined with fixed weights into a 0-100 score. Win probability maps the score into a 5-55% band; expected value applies it to contract profit and subtracts bid cost.
How to use this calculator
- 1
Score the seven criteria
Slide each 0-10 with the tooltip anchors. Be harsh — optimism is the default failure mode.
- 2
Enter the deal economics
Contract value, expected margin and the true cost of preparing this bid.
- 3
Read the recommendation
≥65 bid — 45-64 bid with conditions — <45 no-bid — plus expected value per bid dollar.
Example calculations
EPC bid evaluation
Example 1Relationship:6, Scope:7, Competition:5, Margin:6, Capacity:7, Risk:5, Strategy:6, $1.5M contract, 12% margin, $25K bid cost.
- Bid Score:
- 61
- Recommendation:
- Bid with Conditions
- Expected Value:
- $22,100
Interpreting your results
≥65: Bid — pursue with commitment. 45-64: Bid with Conditions — improve a criterion before submission. <45: No-Bid — your bid cost is very likely a donation.
Need the market data behind this calculator?
The Bid / No-Bid Decision Calculator is only as good as its inputs. Blackridge Research publishes syndicated market reports with vetted market sizes, growth rates, and competitive landscapes across 40+ industries — and builds custom studies when the shelf report doesn't exist.
Industry applications
Business
- Bid committees: Replace Friday arguments with a shared score sheet.
- Estimating & proposal teams: Fewer, better bids — capacity concentrated where it can convert.
- Executives: A portfolio view of pursuit quality, one score per deal.
Construction
- Construction contractors: Evaluate tender opportunities.
- EPC companies: Prioritize bid submissions.
Research
- Bid analysis: Study win rate drivers.
- Sales strategy: Model pursuit decisions.
Common mistakes to avoid
-
Being too optimistic
Be harsh — optimism is the default failure mode of bid committees.
-
Ignoring bid preparation cost
True bid cost includes estimating, engineering, and management time.
Frequently asked questions
What score should trigger a no-bid?
Below 45 — your bid cost is very likely a donation.
How does earlier discovery change bid/no-bid outcomes?
Earlier visibility lets you improve criteria like relationship and scope fit before scoring.
Glossary
- Bid score:
- Weighted score of seven criteria (0-100).
- Win probability:
- Likelihood of winning based on score (5-55%).
- EV ratio:
- Expected value divided by bid cost.
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