Bid / No-Bid Decision Calculator — Tender Scoring | Blackridge Research

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Free Bid Tool

Bid / No-Bid Decision Calculator Interactive Calculator ✦

The cheapest tender is the one you wisely didn't enter. Score any opportunity on seven weighted criteria and get a disciplined recommendation — with the expected-value math to back it.

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Your Inputs

Auto-filled with current list pricing — add to match your quote.

Your Estimated Results

Scenario:

Return multiple: Return on investment:
net of tracker cost
Payback period:
or annual investment

What this means

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Adjust the inputs above to calculate your results.

Why It Matters

Bid discipline is a profit strategy

Most bid teams lose money on the majority of their submissions — not through incompetence, but through indiscriminate pursuit. Every marginal 'because it was there' consumes estimating hours, engineering time and management attention that stronger pursuits needed.

A structured bid/no-bid gate fixes this with almost embarrassing efficiency. Scoring each opportunity on the same weighted criteria removes the loudest-voice-in-the-room effect and concentrates your bid budget where win probability justifies it.

✓
Seven criteria, weighted: Relationship and scope fit carry the most weight; risk and capacity keep enthusiasm honest.
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EV, not vibes: Indicative win probability × contract profit - bid cost = a number you can rank pursuits by.
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Consistent across the team: The same rubric every time makes decisions comparable, reviewable and teachable.
How It Works

Three steps to your number

01

Score the seven criteria

Slide each 0-10 with the tooltip anchors. Be harsh — optimism is the default failure mode.

02

Enter the deal economics

Contract value, expected margin and the true cost of preparing this bid.

03

Read the recommendation

≥65 bid — 45-64 bid with conditions — <45 no-bid — plus expected value per bid dollar.

Methodology & assumptions

Criteria scores are combined with fixed weights into a 0-100 score. Win probability maps the score into a 5-55% band; expected value applies it to contract profit and subtracts bid cost.

Score = Σ(Criterion × Weight) × 10 → 0-100
Win prob. = 5% + Score × 0.5 → 5%-55%
EV = Win prob. × Value × Margin - Bid cost
EV ratio = EV ÷ Bid cost
Use Cases

Who uses this calculator

Construction contractors

Evaluate tender opportunities.

EPC companies

Prioritize bid submissions.

FAQ

Your questions, answered

Below 45 — your bid cost is very likely a donation.
Earlier visibility lets you improve criteria like relationship and scope fit before scoring.
Enterprise Intelligence

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Announced, planned and tendering right now — with a free trial of the Global Project Tracker, or get a 20-minute walkthrough with data relevant to your business.

Trusted by 500+ companies · 150+ countries · 200+ sectors · Updated daily

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