Norway Solar Power Market Outlook to 2028

The solar energy market is growing rapidly in Norway. According to Blackridge Research, the total solar power installed capacity in Norway is expected to increase from 358 MW in 2022 to 4,943 MW by 2028. 

Supportive government policies and targets, increased support from Enova, high electricity prices, growing awareness of climate and energy security, the desire for energy independence, declining PV system costs, digitization and new business models, the competitiveness of solar power, rising electricity demand, and organizational sustainability goals are some of the factors driving the growth of solar PV deployment in Norway. 

However, Solar PV deployment in Norway faces several challenges that hinder its growth. These include competition from other renewables like wind power and hydropower, a shortage of expertise and skilled professionals, limited network capacity for connecting production and consumption, low profitability for large projects, a lack of strong government support, low solar irradiation compared to other regions, slow licensing processes for large projects, and high installation costs or upfront expenses.

Driver: High Electricity Prices

In Norway, electricity prices have been steadily rising due to a combination of factors. In the southern part of the country, there has been a shortage of rainfall, leading to a decline in hydropower production, which is the primary source of electricity in Norway. Conversely, the northern part of the country has experienced high rainfall, resulting in increased hydropower production.

This situation has led to reduced production at power plants located in the southern regions. However, they are benefiting from higher electricity prices, which has resulted in substantial profits while their operational costs remain unchanged. On the other hand, power stations in central and northern Norway are facing operational losses despite continued operation. The lack of transmission capacity between the northern and southern regions prevents the surplus electricity from being sent to the southern part of the country. Consequently, electricity prices in the southern region are higher compared to the northern region.

Interestingly, the southern region receives more sunlight compared to the north, making it a suitable area for solar energy production. Many residential properties in this region have available roof space that can accommodate solar panels, making it convenient for homeowners to harness solar energy. This has allowed individuals to generate their own electricity, reduce reliance on the grid, and potentially lower their energy costs.

Norway Renewable Energy Status

Norway has the highest share of electricity produced from renewable sources in Europe, almost completely sourced from hydropower, making it the country’s largest primary energy source. Renewable energy sources account for 98% of Norway's electricity production, with hydropower being the dominant source, followed by offshore wind power.

In June 2017, Norway's parliament adopted the Climate Change Act, which legally sets the country's emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050. According to the latest update, the Act specifies that by 2030, Norway aims to reduce emissions by a minimum of 50% and potentially up to 55% compared to 1990 levels. Furthermore, the Act outlines a long-term goal for Norway to become a low-emission society by 2050, defined as achieving a reduction of 90-95% in emissions compared to 1990 levels.

To achieve its emission reduction target, Norway plans to strengthen its future renewable electricity generation mix, to be made primarily of hydro, wind, and solar power.

Solar Energy in Norway

Contrary to common belief, Norway's extreme northern latitude does not make it unsuitable for solar power production. Norway possesses advantageous conditions for harnessing electricity through solar cells. Specifically, the southern and eastern regions of Norway provide an exceptionally favorable environment for efficient solar energy production.

Norway has a well-established solar industry. In the early 1990s, Norwegian companies began developing cutting-edge solar cell technology. By the first decade of the 2000s, REC, a Norwegian company (now part of Reliance Industries Ltd.), had emerged as the world's largest producer of polycrystalline solar cells, operating the most advanced manufacturing facilities globally.

In Norway, the majority of distributed renewable power generation comes from rooftop solar power installed on residential and commercial buildings. Due to the high cost of electricity, there is currently a strong demand for new solar installations.

Between January 2023 and early June 2023, Norway added 101 MW of new solar PV capacity, bringing the country's total installed solar PV capacity to 459 MW as of June 2023.

Enova SF, a Norwegian state-owned company that operates as a key player in promoting and facilitating the transition towards a sustainable and clean energy sector in Norway, announced a series of modifications to the existing solar subsidy scheme that are expected to further boost the adoption of solar in Norway. 

Major Trends and Recent Developments

• From 2024 onwards, a new requirement has been established that mandates the installation of solar panels on all newly constructed government buildings in Norway. This initiative is a crucial part of a comprehensive strategy aimed at promoting the widespread adoption of solar technology. The decision was reached on June 20, 2023, as part of a budget deal between Norway's center-left minority government and the Socialist Left Party, which forms the opposition.
• On April 24, 2023, the European Union and Norway forged a "Green Alliance" by signing an agreement, pledging their collaborative efforts in addressing climate change, safeguarding the environment, and advancing the development of necessary technologies for a transition away from fossil fuels.
• Norway’s Norwegian Directorate of Water Resources and Energy (NVE) gave approval for its first solar power plant on December 5, 2022. Initially permitted on May 5, 2022, the Furuseth solar power plant will serve as a pilot for solar power plants in Norway, providing valuable experience and knowledge about solar power.
• The Norwegian government has introduced regulatory changes that allow electricity customers in housing cooperatives, multi-dwelling buildings, and commercial properties to share self-generated electricity. The amendments to the regulations enable customers on the same property to avoid grid fees and charges for consuming the electricity they produce, such as through solar panels. These changes will come into effect on October 1, 2023.

According to Blackridge Research, the outlook for solar PV installation remains strong in the medium term, and the market is expected to expand during the forecast period due to compelling economics and decarbonization commitments by various stakeholders.

Blackridge Research’s Norway Solar Power Market Outlook report consolidates the developments and builds a perspective on growth from the point of view of the solar sector in its current and future roles.

The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the historical development, the current state of the solar power installation scenario (includes existing, upcoming, and planned solar projects), and its outlook.

The majority of the data in the report has been derived from multiple bottom-up and top-down analyses, as well as proprietary models, databases, and offerings (Solar Intelligence Hub and Global Project Tracker Service) built from public and exclusive sources over the years.

The insights include but are not limited to market data, solar PV installation data and capacity addition data and forecasts, government policies and regulations, project data (upcoming solar power projects, under-construction projects, and operating or commissioned solar power plants), company profiles of major players such as Solcellespesialisten AS, Otovo ASA, etc., and competitive landscape analysis.

The market research report covers market dynamics, the growth potential of the photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) markets, economic trends, and investment and financing scenarios in Norway.

Further, the report looks at the current state and assesses the potential of residential, non-residential, and utility-scale solar PV deployment.

Special attention is given to depicting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and associated changes in government policies and the regulatory landscape.