Denmark Solar Power Market Outlook to 2028

In the past three years, Denmark has witnessed a remarkable surge in its solar PV capacity, with the year 2022 being the most prolific, accounting for a staggering ~1600 MW of new installations. This growth can be attributed to the developers' race to beat the 2023 Grid Connection Tariff Scheme, and corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) among others.

However, unlike previous years, solar PV installations are expected to take a hit, primarily due to the recent implementation of a new grid connection scheme from January 2023, which has reduced the attractiveness of solar PV development. As a result, the installation rate for solar PV systems is anticipated to decrease in the next few years, with only around 878 MW projected to come online in 2023, a 45% decrease from the previous year's ~1600 MW. This has led to a slowdown in the number of projects under construction and in the planning stages that are projected to come online by 2023 and 2024.

Despite the expected slowdown in solar PV system installation, there is optimism that Denmark will become a very attractive and promising solar energy market from 2025 and beyond. Solar power installations in the nation are anticipated to increase from 3,140 MW in 2022 to 12,646 MW by 2028. This resurgence is expected to be driven primarily by the ambitious political climate goals and market forces that are increasingly aligned with the green transition.

Driver: Growth in Corporate Power Purchase Agreements (CPPAs)

Corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) have played a significant role in driving solar PV installations in Denmark. 

The increasing interest in corporate PPAs in Denmark can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, many corporations are striving to meet sustainability goals and reduce their carbon footprint. By entering into long-term agreements with solar PV developers, they can ensure a stable and cost-effective supply of clean energy while demonstrating their commitment to environmental responsibility.

Additionally, Denmark has a favourable regulatory environment and stable government support for renewable energy. The Danish government has implemented various policies and incentives to promote the growth of solar PV installations, including favourable feed-in tariffs, and tax incentives. These factors, combined with the increasing competitiveness of solar PV technology, have made it attractive for both corporations and solar developers to engage in PPAs.

Corporate PPAs provide financial certainty for solar PV developers, enabling them to secure financing for new projects and scale up their operations. With a guaranteed buyer for their generated electricity, developers have a more stable revenue stream, reducing the risks associated with project development. This, in turn, encourages greater investment in solar PV installations and facilitates the deployment of larger and more efficient projects.

However, the competition from wind and other conventional energy sources, new renewable energy producer tariff charges, and slower grid connection approval processes, among others, remain challenges to the solar industry's expansion in the country. While onshore and offshore wind power have historically been the primary sources of renewable energy in Denmark, solar panels are now playing an important role in the country's energy production. Solar power contributes directly to Denmark's energy independence and security, as well as to meeting its rising electricity demand and CO2 emissions reduction targets.

The renewable energy transition is being considered critical for Denmark's future, both in terms of reducing reliance on fossil fuels and meeting its climate targets. Despite ongoing difficulties, the nation is making progress towards its objective of producing 100% renewable energy. Achieving this objective requires the expansion of solar energy as well as wind and other sustainable energy sources.

Denmark’s Renewable Energy Status

Denmark has a diverse energy portfolio, with a strong focus on renewable power. Renewable energy sources, such as wind power, biomass, and solar energy, play a significant role in Denmark's energy mix. The installed capacity of renewable energy has increased dramatically over the last decade.

Supportive governmental policies and regulations are the major reasons for the growth of renewable power in the country. Some of the major policies are: 

The Climate Act: Denmark has taken significant measures to combat climate change by passing the 2020 Climate Act, which is now a law. The act establishes an ambitious goal to reduce Denmark's greenhouse gas emissions by 70% in 2030 compared to 1990 levels and aims for climate neutrality by 2050. In December 2022, the Denmark's Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, announced that the country will become carbon neutral by 2045, five years earlier than its previous target (2050).

Climate Agreement for Energy and Industry: The agreement is a package of measures intended to lower Denmark's industrial and energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The Danish government and the majority of the Danish parliament signed the agreement in June 2020. The agreement targets raising the proportion of renewable energy in the nation's overall energy consumption. Initiatives outlined in the climate agreement ensure a shift to market-driven growth in solar and onshore wind power.

Other major policies and regulations include the Act on Promotion of Renewable Energy, government incentives, funds supporting the expansion of renewable sources, etc.

As of 2022, Denmark’s energy needs are covered by 60% renewables. Solar and wind provide 6.1% and 53.4% of the electricity produced in the country, respectively.

Denmark has pledged to reach carbon neutrality by 2045, which aligns with the goals set out in the Paris Agreement. Furthermore, the government has committed to ending all coal-based power generation by 2030 as part of its green transition plan.

To achieve these objectives, Denmark has established a political agreement with targets that aim to ensure that renewable energy sources will supply 100% of electricity consumption and 55% of the total energy consumption in the country by 2030. The plan also includes a target for 90% of district heating to be generated from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030. Additionally, the government has set a goal of ending the sale of new cars powered by petrol and diesel engines by 2030.

The Danish Energy Agency, in charge of promoting clean energy sources such as solar power and wind energy, is taking proactive steps to remove growth inhibitors, including a lack of transmission infrastructure and sluggish government approval procedures. In order to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of solar energy systems, the Technical University of Denmark is also actively engaged in the research and development of solar cells.

Denmark’s Solar Energy Scenario

Denmark became a GW-scale solar power market in terms of solar PV installed capacity after missing the target in 2021 by installing a record 1.6 GW of solar PV capacity in 2022.

(For annual installations forecast, subscribe to the report)

Solar energy provided for about 6% of the total electricity consumed in Denmark by the end of 2022. Despite its relatively small contribution to the country's energy mix, solar PV is becoming increasingly competitive with other forms of energy generation in Denmark. The competitiveness of the technology continued to improve due to much sharper increases in natural gas and coal prices and relatively high electricity prices.

The majority of solar PV installations in Denmark are utility-scale, and these have been the major drivers for the expansion of solar PV in the country. However, in recent years, the residential solar PV market has gained momentum as the technology has become more affordable and efficient due to high costs of electricity, and reducing pay back time amid declining cost of solar panels in the global market.

Some of the Key Upcoming Projects in Denmark

(Exhaustive list of projects in various stages of develeopment available in the full report)

Major Trends and Recent Developments

• Denmark announces, its aim to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045, five years earlier than its previous target.
• Shell plc officially joined Denmark's VindØ consortium, which plans to build energy islands in the North Sea, in May 2023. The energy island will be located roughly 100 kilometres off the coast of Denmark and is projected to be operational by 2030. It will first connect 3 GW of offshore wind capacity, expanding to 10 GW in the future.
• In Nov 2022, Commerz Real made its first investment in the Danish photovoltaic (PV) sector. The real assets division of Commerzbank has acquired two solar parks that are to be newly constructed with a total capacity of 362 MWp from Hydro Rein, a Norwegian investor in renewable energy sources. 
• On May 18, 2022, Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany signed the Esbjerg Declaration, committing to transform the North Sea into a green power hub for Europe.
• Denmark’s new grid connection fee and feed-in tariffs for renewable energy producers kick started from Jan 1st 2023.
• In May 2021, the European Commission approved a Danish aid scheme worth EUR 400 million to support green electricity production.

According to Blackridge Research, the outlook for solar PV installation remains strong in the medium term, and the market is expected to expand during the forecast period due to compelling economics and decarbonization commitments by various stakeholders.

Blackridge Research’s Denmark Solar Energy Market Outlook report consolidates the developments and builds a perspective on growth from the point of view of the solar sector in its current and future roles.

The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the historical development, the current state of the solar power installation scenario (includes existing, upcoming, and planned solar projects), and its outlook.

The majority of the data in the report has been derived from multiple bottom-up and top-down analyses, as well as proprietary models, databases, and offerings (Solar Intelligence Hub and Global Project Tracker Service) built from public and exclusive sources over the years.

The insights include but are not limited to market data, solar PV installation data and capacity addition data and forecasts, government policies and regulations, project data (upcoming solar power projects, under-construction projects, and operating or commissioned solar power plants), company profiles of major players such as Better Energy, European Energy, etc., and competitive landscape analysis.

The market research report covers market dynamics, the growth potential of the photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) markets, economic trends, and investment and financing scenarios in Denmark.

Further, the report looks at the current state and assesses the potential of residential, non-residential, and utility-scale solar PV deployment.

Special attention is given to depicting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and associated changes in government policies and the regulatory landscape.